Summary:

The idiomatic phrase "It's Baked In The Cake" has its roots in the business activities jargon of the early 20th century. This historical connection adds a rich historical dimension to its usage.

The underlying meaning is similar to "It's A Done Deal."

Article:

"Baked in" is the opposite of "half-baked."

On one side, an outcome is deeply embedded or integrated in a way that it becomes a permanent, unalterable part of the situation, ensuring a sense of certainty and inevitability.

Some examples of baked in:

The looming recession is baked into the cake

The stock markets and real estate tend to rise over time in response to inflationary pressures. It's baked in the cake.

The government's use of propaganda to control the masses is deeply ingrained in its culture.

Half-baked:

When the creators of Federal Express submitted their master's thesis as a platform carrier service, the professor thought it was a half-baked idea and gave his student a C grade.

Many ideas appear half-baked until they are proven otherwise.

One of my close friends' daughters is an ideological zealot. She is fanatically committed to fairness defined as a form of Marxism (forced redistribution taking from the productive people and redistributing to the benefit of the non-productive parasite class). Her ideas constitute a redistribution and top-down government platform, where the government controls all avenues of production, innovation, thought, and public opinion.

Somehow, Marxists consider individual accountability and self-sufficiency as a half-baked idea